Cody Durden vs Ode Osbourne Prediction
The setup
Cody Durden (7-9 in the UFC) faces Ode Osbourne (5-8 in the UFC) in a three-round flyweight bout at UFC Fight Night 292 on October 31, 2026. Durden is 1-4 over the last five and lost to Alessandro Costa last time out. Osbourne has lost two straight, most recently to Alibi Idiris. Osbourne has a 6-inch reach advantage.
On the feet
Durden lands 3.27 significant strikes per minute at 44% accuracy and absorbs 3.89. Osbourne lands 2.88 at 40% and absorbs 3.24. Their striking differentials are close, so neither has a clear edge on volume. Osbourne has 3 knockout wins in 13 UFC fights. By our numbers both are balanced strikers.
On the mat
Durden brings more of the wrestling, averaging 3.82 takedowns per 15 minutes at 48% accuracy, and Osbourne stops 66% of takedown attempts. Durden carries the bigger submission threat: 0.62 attempts per 15 minutes and 1 submission win in the UFC. Durden spends 37% of fight time in control, to 7% for Osbourne.
How it ends
The likeliest way for either fighter to win is by decision: 31% for Durden, 26% for Osbourne. The model gives it a 43% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (53% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds. More often than not, this one goes to the judges.
The pick
The model takes Osbourne at 51%, close to a coin flip. Picks in the 50-55% range have been right 55% of the time on 467 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Osbourne: absorbing fewer strikes, reach and takedown defense. Durden's case rests on UFC experience and takedown volume.
Track record: 64% correct on 1,489 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.