Yana Santos vs Luana Santos Prediction
The setup
Yana Santos (ranked No. 6, 7-5 in the UFC) faces Luana Santos (ranked No. 7, 6-1 in the UFC) in a three-round women's bantamweight bout at UFC Fight Night 292 on October 31, 2026. Santos has won three straight, most recently over Macy Chiasson. It's Santos's first fight in 12 months. Santos has won three straight, most recently over Karol Rosa. Santos is the younger fighter by 10 years.
On the feet
Santos lands 4.41 significant strikes per minute at 58% accuracy and absorbs 3.12. Santos lands 2.53 at 54% and absorbs 2.45. That gives Santos the better striking differential, +1.29 per minute to Santos's +0.08. Santos is the harder target, avoiding 64% of strikes to Santos's 53%. By our numbers Santos is a volume striker and Santos a counter striker.
On the mat
Santos brings more of the wrestling, averaging 2.14 takedowns per 15 minutes at 38% accuracy, and Santos stops 52% of takedown attempts. Santos gets taken down often, which plays into Santos's hands. Santos carries the bigger submission threat: 0.97 attempts per 15 minutes and 2 submission wins in the UFC. Santos spends 55% of fight time in control, to 30% for Santos. Against wrestlers, Santos is 2-1 in the UFC.
How it ends
The likeliest way for either fighter to win is by decision: 20% for Santos, 39% for Santos. The model gives it a 41% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (53% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds. More often than not, this one goes to the judges.
The pick
The model takes Santos at 71%, one of the model's stronger calls. Picks in the 70-100% range have been right 78% of the time on 106 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Santos: the age gap, time between fights and recent form. Santos's case rests on striking output and UFC experience.
Track record: 64% correct on 1,489 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.