Julian Erosa vs JeongYeong Lee Prediction
The setup
Julian Erosa (9-9 in the UFC) faces JeongYeong Lee (2-2 in the UFC) in a three-round featherweight bout at UFC Fight Night 292 on October 31, 2026. Erosa has lost two straight, most recently to Lerryan Douglas. Lee has lost two straight, most recently to Daniel Santos. It's Lee's first fight in 17 months. Lee is the younger fighter by 7 years. Erosa is 3 inches taller. It's a southpaw vs orthodox matchup.
On the feet
Erosa lands 6.06 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy and absorbs 6.23. Lee lands 3.17 at 49% and absorbs 3.80. That gives Erosa the better striking differential, -0.16 per minute to Lee's -0.63. Erosa has 2 knockout wins in 18 UFC fights. By our numbers Erosa is a pressure striker and Lee a balanced striker.
On the mat
Erosa brings more of the wrestling, averaging 1.81 takedowns per 15 minutes at 45% accuracy, and Lee stops 74% of takedown attempts. Erosa carries the bigger submission threat: 0.74 attempts per 15 minutes and 4 submission wins in the UFC. Against takedown defenders, Erosa is 1-2 in the UFC.
How it ends
The likeliest way for either fighter to win is by decision: 23% for Erosa, 35% for Lee. The model gives it a 42% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (53% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds. More often than not, this one goes to the judges.
The pick
The model takes Lee at 56%, a slight lean. Picks in the 55-60% range have been right 63% of the time on 398 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Lee: absorbing fewer strikes, the age gap and takedown defense. Erosa's case rests on time between fights and striking output.
Track record: 64% correct on 1,489 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.