Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Farman Hasanov Prediction
The setup
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (2-0 in the UFC) faces Farman Hasanov (1-0 in the UFC) in a three-round welterweight bout at UFC Fight Night 292 on October 31, 2026. Lebosnoyani has won two straight, most recently over Seokhyeon Ko. Hasanov is 1-0 over the last one and beat Eric Nolan last time out. Lebosnoyani is the younger fighter by 4 years. Hasanov has a 2-inch reach advantage.
On the feet
Lebosnoyani lands 3.93 significant strikes per minute at 45% accuracy and absorbs 4.00. Hasanov lands 1.40 at 51% and absorbs 1.00. That gives Hasanov the better striking differential, +0.40 per minute to Lebosnoyani's -0.07. Hasanov is the harder target, avoiding 71% of strikes to Lebosnoyani's 57%.
On the mat
Hasanov brings more of the wrestling, averaging 17.00 takedowns per 15 minutes at 63% accuracy, and Lebosnoyani stops 100% of takedown attempts. That defense is a real obstacle, so Hasanov may have to work hard to get it down. Lebosnoyani carries the bigger submission threat: 2.00 attempts per 15 minutes and 0 submission wins in the UFC. Hasanov spends 75% of fight time in control, to 25% for Lebosnoyani.
How it ends
The likeliest way for either fighter to win is by decision: 26% for Lebosnoyani, 29% for Hasanov. The model gives it a 45% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (53% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds.
The pick
The model takes Lebosnoyani at 55%, close to a coin flip. Picks in the 50-55% range have been right 55% of the time on 467 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Lebosnoyani: the age gap, win rate and takedown defense. Hasanov's case rests on absorbing fewer strikes and takedown volume.
Track record: 64% correct on 1,489 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.