Francis Marshall vs Dakota Hope Prediction
The setup
Francis Marshall (4-3 in the UFC) faces Dakota Hope (0-1 in the UFC) in a three-round featherweight bout at UFC Fight Night 292 on October 31, 2026. Marshall has won two straight, most recently over Lucas Brennan. Hope is 0-1 over the last one and lost to Kai Kamaka III last time out. Marshall has 3 inches of height and 4 inches of reach on Hope. It's an orthodox vs southpaw matchup.
On the feet
Marshall lands 2.34 significant strikes per minute at 29% accuracy and absorbs 3.14. Hope lands 7.07 at 41% and absorbs 7.00. That gives Hope the better striking differential, +0.07 per minute to Marshall's -0.80. Marshall is the harder target, avoiding 54% of strikes to Hope's 34%.
On the mat
Marshall brings more of the wrestling, averaging 2.04 takedowns per 15 minutes at 42% accuracy, and Hope stops 100% of takedown attempts. That defense is a real obstacle, so Marshall may have to work hard to get it down. Marshall carries the bigger submission threat: 0.61 attempts per 15 minutes and 1 submission win in the UFC. Marshall spends 32% of fight time in control, to 9% for Hope.
How it ends
The likeliest way for either fighter to win is by decision: 43% for Marshall, 19% for Hope. The model gives it a 38% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (53% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds. More often than not, this one goes to the judges.
The pick
The model takes Marshall at 68%, a confident pick. Picks in the 65-70% range have been right 75% of the time on 205 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Marshall: absorbing fewer strikes, the age gap and UFC experience. Hope's case rests on striking output and striking accuracy.
Track record: 64% correct on 1,489 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.