Ode' Osbourne vs Cody Durden Prediction
The setup
Ode' Osbourne (5-7 in the UFC) faces Cody Durden (7-9 in the UFC) in a three-round flyweight bout at UFC Fight Night 292 on October 31, 2026. Osbourne is 1-3 over the last four and lost to Steve Erceg last time out. Durden is 1-4 over the last five and lost to Alessandro Costa last time out. Osbourne has a 6-inch reach advantage.
On the feet
Osbourne lands 2.88 significant strikes per minute at 40% accuracy and absorbs 3.24. Durden lands 3.27 at 44% and absorbs 3.89. Their striking differentials are close, so neither has a clear edge on volume. Osbourne has 3 knockout wins in 12 UFC fights. By our numbers both are balanced strikers.
On the mat
Durden brings more of the wrestling, averaging 3.82 takedowns per 15 minutes at 48% accuracy, and Osbourne stops 66% of takedown attempts. Durden carries the bigger submission threat: 0.62 attempts per 15 minutes and 1 submission win in the UFC. Durden spends 37% of fight time in control, to 7% for Osbourne.
How it ends
The likeliest way for either fighter to win is by decision: 29% for Osbourne, 26% for Durden. The model gives it a 46% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (53% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds.
The pick
The model takes Osbourne at 58%, a slight lean. Picks in the 55-60% range have been right 63% of the time on 398 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Osbourne: absorbing fewer strikes, reach and takedown defense. Durden's case rests on UFC experience and takedown volume.
Track record: 64% correct on 1,489 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.