Lucia Szabova vs Tainara Lisboa Prediction
The setup
Lucia Szabova (debuting at 10-0 pro) faces Tainara Lisboa (2-2 in the UFC) in a three-round women's flyweight bout at UFC Fight Night 292 on October 31, 2026. Lisboa has lost two straight, most recently to Melissa Croden. It's Lisboa's first fight in 12 months. Szabova is the younger fighter by 7 years.
On the feet
There's no UFC striking data on Szabova yet, so the model goes on age, size and record there. Lisboa lands 2.01 significant strikes per minute at 44% accuracy and absorbs 2.88. Szabova won 10 fights before the UFC, 3 by knockout and 4 by submission.
On the mat
Lisboa averages 1.67 takedowns per 15 minutes and stops 53% of takedown attempts. With the other fighter debuting, there's nothing in the UFC to compare that against yet.
How it ends
The likeliest way for either fighter to win is by decision: 26% for Szabova, 28% for Lisboa. The model gives it a 46% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (53% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds.
The pick
The model takes Szabova at 52%, close to a coin flip. Picks in the 50-55% range have been right 55% of the time on 467 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Szabova: the age gap and recent form. Lisboa's case rests on UFC experience and absorbing fewer strikes.
Track record: 64% correct on 1,489 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.