Nick Klein vs Joseph Kropschot Prediction
The setup
Nick Klein (0-2 in the UFC) faces Joseph Kropschot (debuting at 9-3 pro) in a three-round middleweight bout at UFC Fight Night 292 on October 31, 2026. Klein has lost two straight, most recently to Andrey Pulyaev. It's Klein's first fight in 14 months. Kropschot has 2 inches of height and 2 inches of reach on Klein.
On the feet
There's no UFC striking data on Kropschot yet, so the model goes on age, size and record there. Klein lands 2.55 significant strikes per minute at 57% accuracy and absorbs 3.49. Kropschot won 9 fights before the UFC, 2 by knockout and 6 by submission.
On the mat
Klein averages 5.03 takedowns per 15 minutes and stops 67% of takedown attempts. With the other fighter debuting, there's nothing in the UFC to compare that against yet.
How it ends
Klein's likeliest path is by decision (19%), while Kropschot's is by knockout (25%). The model gives it a 60% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (53% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds.
The pick
The model takes Kropschot at 55%, close to a coin flip. Picks in the 50-55% range have been right 55% of the time on 467 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Kropschot: recent form and win rate. Klein's case rests on UFC experience.
Track record: 64% correct on 1,489 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.