Rodrigo Sezinando vs Theodor Berggren Prediction
The setup
Rodrigo Sezinando (0-1 in the UFC) faces Theodor Berggren (0-1 in the UFC) in a three-round welterweight bout at UFC Fight Night 292 on October 31, 2026. Sezinando is 0-1 over the last one and lost to Daniil Donchenko last time out. It's Sezinando's first fight in 13 months. Berggren is 0-1 over the last one and lost to Daniil Donchenko last time out. Berggren has 3 inches of height and 4 inches of reach on Sezinando.
On the feet
Sezinando lands 2.25 significant strikes per minute at 28% accuracy and absorbs 8.76. Berggren lands 3.49 at 36% and absorbs 10.78. That gives Sezinando the better striking differential, -6.52 per minute to Berggren's -7.29. Sezinando is the harder target, avoiding 43% of strikes to Berggren's 34%.
On the mat
Sezinando brings more of the wrestling, averaging 3.37 takedowns per 15 minutes at 25% accuracy. Sezinando spends 23% of fight time in control, to 4% for Berggren.
How it ends
Sezinando's likeliest path is by decision (27%), while Berggren's is by knockout (23%). The model gives it a 51% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (53% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds.
The pick
The model takes Berggren at 51%, close to a coin flip. Picks in the 50-55% range have been right 55% of the time on 467 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Berggren: the age gap, time between fights and reach. Sezinando's case rests on absorbing fewer strikes and takedown volume.
Track record: 64% correct on 1,489 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.