Zachary Reese vs Mickey Gall Prediction
The setup
Zachary Reese (4-4 in the UFC) faces Mickey Gall (6-7 in the UFC) in a three-round middleweight bout at UFC Fight Night 292 on October 31, 2026. Reese has lost two straight, most recently to Ryan Gandra. Gall has lost four straight, most recently to Ramiz Brahimaj. It's Gall's first fight in 23 months. Reese has 2 inches of height and 3 inches of reach on Gall.
On the feet
Reese lands 4.43 significant strikes per minute at 54% accuracy and absorbs 3.90. Gall lands 3.50 at 50% and absorbs 4.72. That gives Reese the better striking differential, +0.53 per minute to Gall's -1.22. Gall is the harder target, avoiding 50% of strikes to Reese's 44%. By our numbers both are balanced strikers.
On the mat
Reese brings more of the wrestling, averaging 2.80 takedowns per 15 minutes at 61% accuracy, and Gall stops 38% of takedown attempts. Gall gets taken down often, which plays into Reese's hands. Gall carries the bigger submission threat: 1.58 attempts per 15 minutes and 5 submission wins in the UFC. Against submission grapplers, Reese is 2-1 in the UFC. Against wrestlers, Gall is 2-1 in the UFC.
How it ends
The likeliest way for either fighter to win is by decision: 36% for Reese, 14% for Gall. The model gives it a 49% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (53% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds.
The pick
The model takes Reese at 69%, a confident pick. Picks in the 65-70% range have been right 75% of the time on 205 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Reese: absorbing fewer strikes, the age gap and time between fights. Gall's case rests on UFC experience and striking output.
Track record: 64% correct on 1,489 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.