Bilal Hasan vs Luis Gurule Prediction
The setup
Bilal Hasan (1-0 in the UFC) faces Luis Gurule (1-4 in the UFC) in a three-round flyweight bout at UFC 334 on November 14, 2026. Hasan is 1-0 over the last one and beat Nilson Rojas last time out. Gurule is 1-4 over the last five and lost to Rei Tsuruya last time out. Hasan is the younger fighter by 7 years. Hasan has 2 inches of height and 6 inches of reach on Gurule.
On the feet
Hasan lands 7.10 significant strikes per minute at 41% accuracy and absorbs 4.42. Gurule lands 5.02 at 41% and absorbs 5.65. That gives Hasan the better striking differential, +2.68 per minute to Gurule's -0.63. Gurule is the harder target, avoiding 57% of strikes to Hasan's 50%.
On the mat
Hasan brings more of the wrestling, averaging 2.01 takedowns per 15 minutes at 100% accuracy, and Gurule stops 73% of takedown attempts.
How it ends
Hasan's likeliest path is by knockout (32%), while Gurule's is by decision (17%). The model gives it a 54% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (53% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds.
The pick
The model takes Hasan at 72%, one of the model's stronger calls. Picks in the 70-100% range have been right 75% of the time on 110 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Hasan: the age gap, absorbing fewer strikes and recent form. Gurule's case rests on UFC experience and takedown accuracy.
Track record: 64% correct on 1,514 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.