Jim Miller vs Terrance McKinney Prediction
The setup
Jim Miller (28-18 in the UFC) faces Terrance McKinney (8-6 in the UFC) in a three-round lightweight bout at UFC 334 on November 14, 2026. Miller is 3-2 over the last five and beat Jared Gordon last time out. McKinney is 3-2 over the last five and lost to King Green last time out. McKinney is the younger fighter by 11 years. McKinney has 2 inches of height and 2 inches of reach on Miller.
On the feet
Miller lands 2.92 significant strikes per minute at 42% accuracy and absorbs 3.43. McKinney lands 7.95 at 56% and absorbs 4.76. That gives McKinney the better striking differential, +3.19 per minute to Miller's -0.51. Miller is the harder target, avoiding 57% of strikes to McKinney's 42%. Miller has 6 knockout wins in 46 UFC fights. McKinney has 5 knockout wins in 14 UFC fights. By our numbers Miller is a balanced striker and McKinney a volume striker.
On the mat
McKinney brings more of the wrestling, averaging 3.05 takedowns per 15 minutes at 47% accuracy, and Miller stops 48% of takedown attempts. Miller gets taken down often, which plays into McKinney's hands. McKinney carries the bigger submission threat: 2.18 attempts per 15 minutes and 3 submission wins in the UFC. McKinney spends 45% of fight time in control, to 21% for Miller. Against submission grapplers, Miller is 10-7 in the UFC.
How it ends
Miller's likeliest path is by decision (17%), while McKinney's is by knockout (24%). The model gives it a 63% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (53% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds.
The pick
The model takes McKinney at 57%, a slight lean. Picks in the 55-60% range have been right 62% of the time on 394 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward McKinney: the age gap, takedown volume and striking output. Miller's case rests on recent form and win rate.
Track record: 64% correct on 1,514 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.