Donte Johnson vs Cesar Almeida Prediction
The setup
Donte Johnson (3-0 in the UFC) faces Cesar Almeida (3-3 in the UFC) in a three-round middleweight bout at UFC 334 on November 14, 2026. Johnson has won three straight, most recently over Eric McConico. Almeida has lost two straight, most recently to Damian Pinas. Johnson is the younger fighter by 11 years. Almeida is 5 inches taller. It's a southpaw vs orthodox matchup.
On the feet
Johnson lands 2.86 significant strikes per minute at 43% accuracy and absorbs 1.82. Almeida lands 3.48 at 60% and absorbs 2.32. Their striking differentials are close, so neither has a clear edge on volume. Johnson is the harder target, avoiding 63% of strikes to Almeida's 43%. Almeida has 2 knockout wins in 6 UFC fights. By our numbers Johnson is light on striking and Almeida a balanced striker.
On the mat
Johnson brings more of the wrestling, averaging 1.95 takedowns per 15 minutes at 100% accuracy, and Almeida stops 48% of takedown attempts. Almeida gets taken down often, which plays into Johnson's hands. Johnson carries the bigger submission threat: 0.65 attempts per 15 minutes and 1 submission win in the UFC. Johnson spends 29% of fight time in control, to 6% for Almeida.
How it ends
The likeliest way for either fighter to win is by knockout: 31% for Johnson, 13% for Almeida. The model gives it a 61% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (54% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds.
The pick
The model takes Johnson at 71%, one of the model's stronger calls. Picks in the 70-100% range have been right 75% of the time on 110 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Johnson: the age gap, recent form and win rate. Almeida's case rests on UFC experience and striking accuracy.
Track record: 64% correct on 1,514 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.