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The setup

Kayla Harrison (the champion, 3-0 in the UFC) faces Amanda Nunes (16-2 in the UFC) in a five-round women's bantamweight title co-main event at UFC 334 on November 14, 2026. Harrison has won three straight, most recently over Julianna Pena. It's Harrison's first fight in 17 months. Nunes has won two straight, most recently over Irene Aldana. It's Nunes's first fight in 41 months. Nunes has a 3-inch reach advantage. It's a southpaw vs orthodox matchup.

On the feet

Harrison lands 4.29 significant strikes per minute at 62% accuracy and absorbs 1.10. Nunes lands 4.54 at 52% and absorbs 2.44. That gives Harrison the better striking differential, +3.19 per minute to Nunes's +2.10. Harrison is the harder target, avoiding 66% of strikes to Nunes's 59%. Nunes has 7 knockout wins in 18 UFC fights. By our numbers Harrison is a counter striker and Nunes a power striker.

On the mat

Harrison brings more of the wrestling, averaging 2.84 takedowns per 15 minutes at 38% accuracy, and Nunes stops 81% of takedown attempts. That defense is a real obstacle, so Harrison may have to work hard to get it down. Harrison carries the bigger submission threat: 0.95 attempts per 15 minutes and 2 submission wins in the UFC. Harrison spends 59% of fight time in control, to 34% for Nunes. Against wrestlers, Nunes is 5-1 in the UFC.

How it ends

The likeliest way for either fighter to win is by decision: 24% for Harrison, 20% for Nunes. The model gives it a 56% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (38% of finishes), and 63% come in the first two rounds.

The pick

The model takes Harrison at 57%, a slight lean. Picks in the 55-60% range have been right 62% of the time on 394 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Harrison: absorbing fewer strikes, the age gap and time between fights. Nunes's case rests on recent form and win rate.