Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke Prediction
The setup
Stephen Thompson (12-9 in the UFC) faces Charles Radtke (5-2 in the UFC) in a three-round welterweight bout at UFC 334 on November 14, 2026. Thompson has lost three straight, most recently to Gabriel Bonfim. It's Thompson's first fight in 15 months. Radtke has won two straight, most recently over Francisco Prado. Radtke is the younger fighter by 7 years. Thompson has 3 inches of height and 3 inches of reach on Radtke.
On the feet
Thompson lands 4.05 significant strikes per minute at 46% accuracy and absorbs 3.00. Radtke lands 2.50 at 54% and absorbs 2.45. That gives Thompson the better striking differential, +1.05 per minute to Radtke's +0.05. Thompson has 6 knockout wins in 21 UFC fights. Radtke has 2 knockout wins in 7 UFC fights. By our numbers Thompson is a balanced striker and Radtke light on striking.
On the mat
Radtke brings more of the wrestling, averaging 1.99 takedowns per 15 minutes at 44% accuracy, and Thompson stops 63% of takedown attempts. Radtke spends 51% of fight time in control, to 6% for Thompson. Against wrestlers, Thompson is 3-2 in the UFC.
How it ends
The likeliest way for either fighter to win is by decision: 14% for Thompson, 36% for Radtke. The model gives it a 50% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (53% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds.
The pick
The model takes Radtke at 71%, one of the model's stronger calls. Picks in the 70-100% range have been right 75% of the time on 110 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Radtke: the age gap, absorbing fewer strikes and time between fights. Thompson's case rests on recent form and striking output.
Track record: 64% correct on 1,514 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.