Jared Gordon vs Melquizael Costa Prediction
The setup
Jared Gordon (9-8 in the UFC) faces Melquizael Costa (7-3 in the UFC) in a three-round lightweight bout at UFC 334 on November 14, 2026. Gordon has lost two straight, most recently to Jim Miller. Costa is 4-1 over the last five and lost to Arnold Allen last time out. Costa is the younger fighter by 8 years. Costa has a 3-inch reach advantage. It's an orthodox vs southpaw matchup.
On the feet
Gordon lands 5.57 significant strikes per minute at 54% accuracy and absorbs 4.11. Costa lands 4.29 at 47% and absorbs 3.19. That gives Gordon the better striking differential, +1.46 per minute to Costa's +1.11. Gordon is the harder target, avoiding 55% of strikes to Costa's 50%. Gordon has 3 knockout wins in 17 UFC fights. Costa has 2 knockout wins in 10 UFC fights. By our numbers Gordon is a volume striker and Costa a balanced striker.
On the mat
Both mix in takedowns at a similar rate (1.91 and 1.53 per 15 minutes), and Gordon stops 60% of attempts to Costa's 51%. Costa carries the bigger submission threat: 0.84 attempts per 15 minutes and 2 submission wins in the UFC. Gordon spends 34% of fight time in control, to 17% for Costa. Against submission grapplers, Gordon is 3-4 in the UFC. Against wrestlers, Costa is 2-0 in the UFC.
How it ends
Gordon's likeliest path is by decision (15%), while Costa's is by knockout (31%). The model gives it a 55% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (53% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds.
The pick
The model takes Costa at 74%, one of the model's stronger calls. Picks in the 70-100% range have been right 75% of the time on 110 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Costa: absorbing fewer strikes, the age gap and recent form. Gordon's case rests on UFC experience and striking output.
Track record: 64% correct on 1,514 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.