Macy Chiasson vs Bia Mesquita Prediction
The setup
Macy Chiasson (ranked No. 9, 8-6 in the UFC) faces Bia Mesquita (ranked No. 11, 3-0 in the UFC) in a three-round women's bantamweight bout at UFC 334 on November 14, 2026. Chiasson has lost three straight, most recently to Ailin Perez. Mesquita has won three straight, most recently over Melissa Mullins. Chiasson has 5 inches of height and 4.5 inches of reach on Mesquita.
On the feet
Chiasson lands 3.21 significant strikes per minute at 46% accuracy and absorbs 2.76. Mesquita lands 4.52 at 57% and absorbs 1.27. That gives Mesquita the better striking differential, +3.25 per minute to Chiasson's +0.45. Mesquita is the harder target, avoiding 71% of strikes to Chiasson's 45%. Chiasson has 3 knockout wins in 14 UFC fights. By our numbers Chiasson is a power striker and Mesquita light on striking.
On the mat
Mesquita brings more of the wrestling, averaging 3.57 takedowns per 15 minutes at 75% accuracy, and Chiasson stops 62% of takedown attempts. Mesquita carries the bigger submission threat: 3.57 attempts per 15 minutes and 3 submission wins in the UFC. Mesquita spends 54% of fight time in control, to 34% for Chiasson. Against submission grapplers, Chiasson is 4-1 in the UFC. Against wrestlers, Mesquita is 2-0 in the UFC.
How it ends
The likeliest way for either fighter to win is by decision: 21% for Chiasson, 28% for Mesquita. The model gives it a 52% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (53% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds.
The pick
The model takes Mesquita at 57%, a slight lean. Picks in the 55-60% range have been right 62% of the time on 394 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Mesquita: striking output, absorbing fewer strikes and win rate. Chiasson's case rests on takedown defense and reach.
Track record: 64% correct on 1,514 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.