Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit Prediction
The setup
Ciryl Gane (the champion, 11-2 in the UFC) faces Josh Hokit (ranked No. 4, 4-0 in the UFC) in a five-round heavyweight title main event at UFC 334 on November 14, 2026. Gane has won three straight, most recently over Alex Pereira. Hokit has won four straight, most recently over Derrick Lewis. Hokit is the younger fighter by 8 years. Gane has 3 inches of height and 8 inches of reach on Hokit.
On the feet
Gane lands 5.40 significant strikes per minute at 62% accuracy and absorbs 2.31. Hokit lands 10.28 at 64% and absorbs 6.12. That gives Hokit the better striking differential, +4.16 per minute to Gane's +3.09. Gane is the harder target, avoiding 61% of strikes to Hokit's 48%. Gane has 5 knockout wins in 13 UFC fights. Hokit has 3 knockout wins in 4 UFC fights. By our numbers Gane is a volume striker and Hokit a power striker.
On the mat
Hokit brings more of the wrestling, averaging 1.50 takedowns per 15 minutes at 50% accuracy, and Gane stops 47% of takedown attempts. Gane gets taken down often, which plays into Hokit's hands. Gane carries the bigger submission threat: 0.58 attempts per 15 minutes and 2 submission wins in the UFC. Hokit spends 28% of fight time in control, to 9% for Gane.
How it ends
The likeliest way for either fighter to win is by knockout: 27% for Gane, 21% for Hokit. The model gives it a 66% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (39% of finishes), and 66% come in the first two rounds.
The pick
The model takes Gane at 64%, a clear lean. Picks in the 60-65% range have been right 65% of the time on 314 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Gane: recent form, absorbing fewer strikes and reach. Hokit's case rests on the age gap and takedown defense.
Track record: 64% correct on 1,514 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.