Uroš Medić vs Kevin Holland Prediction
The setup
Uroš Medić (ranked No. 12, 8-3 in the UFC) faces Kevin Holland (ranked No. 15, 16-12 in the UFC) in a three-round welterweight bout at UFC 334 on November 14, 2026. Medic has won four straight, most recently over Daniel Rodriguez. Holland is 3-2 over the last five and beat Randy Brown last time out. Holland has 2 inches of height and 10 inches of reach on Medic. It's a southpaw vs orthodox matchup.
On the feet
Medic lands 5.31 significant strikes per minute at 58% accuracy and absorbs 3.53. Holland lands 4.18 at 50% and absorbs 3.30. That gives Medic the better striking differential, +1.78 per minute to Holland's +0.88. Medic is the harder target, avoiding 56% of strikes to Holland's 50%. Medic has 8 knockout wins in 11 UFC fights. Holland has 5 knockout wins in 28 UFC fights. By our numbers Medic is a power striker and Holland a balanced striker.
On the mat
Neither leans on wrestling (0.36 and 0.83 takedowns per 15 minutes), so this should mostly be fought standing. Holland carries the bigger submission threat: 0.63 attempts per 15 minutes and 6 submission wins in the UFC.
How it ends
Medic's likeliest path is by knockout (22%), while Holland's is by decision (22%). The model gives it a 57% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (53% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds.
The pick
The model takes Holland at 51%, close to a coin flip. Picks in the 50-55% range have been right 56% of the time on 489 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Holland: reach, absorbing fewer strikes and takedown defense. Medic's case rests on win rate and recent form.
Track record: 64% correct on 1,514 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.