Caio Borralho vs Yousri Belgaroui Prediction
The setup
Caio Borralho (ranked No. 5, 8-1 in the UFC) faces Yousri Belgaroui (3-0 in the UFC) in a three-round middleweight bout at UFC 334 on November 14, 2026. Borralho is 4-1 over the last five and beat Reinier de Ridder last time out. Belgaroui has won three straight, most recently over Djorden Santos. Belgaroui has 4 inches of height and 4 inches of reach on Borralho. It's a southpaw vs orthodox matchup.
On the feet
Borralho lands 3.30 significant strikes per minute at 55% accuracy and absorbs 2.63. Belgaroui lands 8.35 at 65% and absorbs 1.93. That gives Belgaroui the better striking differential, +6.42 per minute to Borralho's +0.67. Belgaroui is the harder target, avoiding 70% of strikes to Borralho's 60%. Belgaroui has 3 knockout wins in 3 UFC fights. By our numbers Borralho is a counter striker and Belgaroui a power striker.
On the mat
Both mix in takedowns at a similar rate (1.08 and 0.52 per 15 minutes), and Borralho stops 74% of attempts to Belgaroui's 56%. Borralho spends 27% of fight time in control, to 6% for Belgaroui.
How it ends
The likeliest way for either fighter to win is by decision: 29% for Borralho, 21% for Belgaroui. The model gives it a 50% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (54% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds.
The pick
The model takes Borralho at 54%, close to a coin flip. Picks in the 50-55% range have been right 56% of the time on 489 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Borralho: recent form, UFC experience and takedown defense. Belgaroui's case rests on absorbing fewer strikes and striking output.
Track record: 64% correct on 1,514 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.