Chad Anheliger vs Steven Koslow
The setup
Chad Anheliger (2-3 in the UFC) faces Steven Koslow (0-1 in the UFC) in a three-round bantamweight bout at UFC Fight Night 291 on October 17, 2026. Anheliger is 2-3 over the last five and lost to Cody Gibson last time out. It's Anheliger's first fight in 23 months. Koslow is 0-1 over the last one and lost to Cameron Saaiman last time out. It's Koslow's first fight in 46 months. Koslow is the younger fighter by 10 years. Koslow has a 5-inch reach advantage.
On the feet
Anheliger lands 3.11 significant strikes per minute at 44% accuracy and absorbs 2.90. Koslow lands 0.77 at 38% and absorbs 3.73. That gives Anheliger the better striking differential, +0.20 per minute to Koslow's -2.95. Anheliger is the harder target, avoiding 54% of strikes to Koslow's 40%.
On the mat
Koslow brings more of the wrestling, averaging 5.28 takedowns per 15 minutes at 56% accuracy, and Anheliger stops 27% of takedown attempts. Anheliger gets taken down often, which plays into Koslow's hands. Koslow carries the bigger submission threat: 1.06 attempts per 15 minutes and 0 submission wins in the UFC. Koslow spends 33% of fight time in control, to 13% for Anheliger.
How it ends
Anheliger's likeliest path is by decision (22%), while Koslow's is by submission (22%). The model gives it a 56% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (53% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds.
The pick
The model takes Koslow at 59%, a slight lean. Picks in the 55-60% range have been right 61% of the time on 387 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Koslow: the age gap, takedown volume and reach. Anheliger's case rests on absorbing fewer strikes and UFC experience.
Model picked Steven Koslow by Decision Model was right
Track record: 64% correct on 1,474 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.