Marc-Andre Barriault vs Kyle Daukaus
The setup
Marc-Andre Barriault (6-10 in the UFC) faces Kyle Daukaus (4-5 in the UFC) in a three-round middleweight bout at UFC Fight Night 291 on October 17, 2026. Barriault has lost two straight, most recently to Michal Oleksiejczuk. Daukaus is 2-3 over the last five and lost to Bo Nickal last time out. Daukaus has a 2-inch reach advantage. It's an orthodox vs southpaw matchup.
On the feet
Barriault lands 5.65 significant strikes per minute at 47% accuracy and absorbs 5.94. Daukaus lands 2.86 at 49% and absorbs 3.23. Their striking differentials are close, so neither has a clear edge on volume. Barriault is the harder target, avoiding 49% of strikes to Daukaus's 42%. Barriault has 3 knockout wins in 16 UFC fights. By our numbers Barriault is a pressure striker and Daukaus light on striking.
On the mat
Daukaus brings more of the wrestling, averaging 1.96 takedowns per 15 minutes at 24% accuracy, and Barriault stops 68% of takedown attempts. Daukaus carries the bigger submission threat: 1.53 attempts per 15 minutes and 2 submission wins in the UFC. Daukaus spends 41% of fight time in control, to 10% for Barriault. Against submission grapplers, Barriault is 1-3 in the UFC.
How it ends
The likeliest way for either fighter to win is by decision: 12% for Barriault, 32% for Daukaus. The model gives it a 56% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (53% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds.
The pick
The model takes Daukaus at 74%, one of the model's stronger calls. Picks in the 70-100% range have been right 77% of the time on 143 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Daukaus: absorbing fewer strikes, the age gap and recent form. Barriault's case rests on UFC experience and takedown defense.
Model picked Kyle Daukaus by Decision Model missed
Track record: 64% correct on 1,474 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.