Katlyn Cerminara vs Mackenzie Stiller
The setup
Katlyn Cerminara (11-6 in the UFC) faces Mackenzie Stiller (debuting at 6-1 pro) in a three-round women's flyweight bout at UFC Fight Night 291 on October 17, 2026. Cerminara has lost two straight, most recently to Maycee Barber. It's Cerminara's first fight in 31 months. Stiller is the younger fighter by 10 years. Cerminara has 7 inches of height and 6 inches of reach on Stiller.
On the feet
There's no UFC striking data on Stiller yet, so the model goes on age, size and record there. Cerminara lands 4.58 significant strikes per minute at 35% accuracy and absorbs 4.48. Stiller won 6 fights before the UFC, 0 by knockout and 5 by submission.
On the mat
Cerminara averages 0.31 takedowns per 15 minutes and stops 50% of takedown attempts. With the other fighter debuting, there's nothing in the UFC to compare that against yet.
How it ends
The likeliest way for either fighter to win is by decision: 34% for Cerminara, 26% for Stiller. The model gives it a 40% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (53% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds. More often than not, this one goes to the judges.
The pick
The model takes Cerminara at 57%, a slight lean. Picks in the 55-60% range have been right 61% of the time on 387 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Cerminara: recent form, win rate and reach. Stiller's case rests on the age gap.
Model picked Katlyn Cerminara by Decision Model was right
Track record: 64% correct on 1,474 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.