Julien Leblanc vs Nick Galanti
The setup
Julien Leblanc (0-1 in the UFC) faces Nick Galanti (debuting at 8-1 pro) in a three-round middleweight bout at UFC Fight Night 291 on October 17, 2026. Leblanc is 0-1 over the last one and lost to Robert Valentin last time out. Galanti is the younger fighter by 6 years.
On the feet
There's no UFC striking data on Galanti yet, so the model goes on age, size and record there. Leblanc lands 1.69 significant strikes per minute at 67% accuracy and absorbs 2.96. Galanti won 8 fights before the UFC, 2 by knockout and 4 by submission.
On the mat
Leblanc averages 0.00 takedowns per 15 minutes and stops 0% of takedown attempts. With the other fighter debuting, there's nothing in the UFC to compare that against yet.
How it ends
Leblanc's likeliest path is by decision (18%), while Galanti's is by knockout (20%). The model gives it a 63% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (53% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds.
The pick
The model takes Galanti at 57%, a slight lean. Picks in the 55-60% range have been right 61% of the time on 387 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Galanti: the age gap, win rate and recent form. Leblanc's case rests on UFC experience.
Model picked Nick Galanti by Decision Model was right
Track record: 64% correct on 1,474 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.