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The setup

Erin Blanchfield (ranked No. 4, 8-1 in the UFC) faces Jasmine Jasudavicius (ranked No. 6, 9-3 in the UFC) in a three-round women's flyweight co-main event at UFC Fight Night 291 on October 17, 2026. Blanchfield has won two straight, most recently over Tracy Cortez. Jasudavicius is 4-1 over the last five and beat Karine Silva last time out. Blanchfield is the younger fighter by 10 years. Jasudavicius has 3 inches of height and 2 inches of reach on Blanchfield.

On the feet

Blanchfield lands 5.24 significant strikes per minute at 44% accuracy and absorbs 4.25. Jasudavicius lands 3.35 at 44% and absorbs 3.38. That gives Blanchfield the better striking differential, +1.00 per minute to Jasudavicius's -0.03. Blanchfield is the harder target, avoiding 59% of strikes to Jasudavicius's 52%. By our numbers Blanchfield is a volume striker and Jasudavicius a balanced striker.

On the mat

Both mix in takedowns at a similar rate (1.96 and 2.49 per 15 minutes), and Blanchfield stops 78% of attempts to Jasudavicius's 75%. Blanchfield carries the bigger submission threat: 0.86 attempts per 15 minutes and 4 submission wins in the UFC. Against wrestlers, Blanchfield is 4-0 in the UFC. Against submission grapplers, Jasudavicius is 3-0 in the UFC.

How it ends

The likeliest way for either fighter to win is by decision: 37% for Blanchfield, 26% for Jasudavicius. The model gives it a 37% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (53% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds. More often than not, this one goes to the judges.

The pick

The model takes Blanchfield at 61%, a clear lean. Picks in the 60-65% range have been right 66% of the time on 287 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Blanchfield: the age gap, win rate and takedown defense. Jasudavicius's case rests on absorbing fewer strikes and UFC experience.