Melissa Croden vs Chelsea Chandler
The setup
Melissa Croden (ranked No. 14, 2-1 in the UFC) faces Chelsea Chandler (3-3 in the UFC) in a three-round women's bantamweight bout at UFC Fight Night 291 on October 17, 2026. Croden is 2-1 over the last three and beat Daria Zhelezniakova last time out. Chandler is 2-3 over the last five and beat Priscila Cachoeira last time out. It's an orthodox vs southpaw matchup.
On the feet
Croden lands 4.27 significant strikes per minute at 47% accuracy and absorbs 2.13. Chandler lands 3.52 at 45% and absorbs 4.27. That gives Croden the better striking differential, +2.13 per minute to Chandler's -0.76. Croden is the harder target, avoiding 59% of strikes to Chandler's 40%. By our numbers both are balanced strikers.
On the mat
Croden brings more of the wrestling, averaging 2.02 takedowns per 15 minutes at 50% accuracy, and Chandler stops 25% of takedown attempts. Chandler gets taken down often, which plays into Croden's hands.
How it ends
The likeliest way for either fighter to win is by decision: 34% for Croden, 25% for Chandler. The model gives it a 41% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (53% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds. More often than not, this one goes to the judges.
The pick
The model takes Croden at 59%, a slight lean. Picks in the 55-60% range have been right 61% of the time on 387 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Croden: absorbing fewer strikes, striking output and win rate. Chandler's case rests on the age gap and UFC experience.
Model picked Melissa Croden by Decision Model missed
Track record: 64% correct on 1,474 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.