Javad Mahjoub vs Joel Faglier
The setup
Javad Mahjoub (debuting at 5-0 pro) faces Joel Faglier (debuting at 6-0 pro) in a three-round heavyweight bout at UFC Fight Night 291 on October 17, 2026. Faglier is the younger fighter by 10 years.
On the feet
Both fighters are making their UFC debuts, so there's no UFC striking data on either. The model goes mostly on age, size and record. Mahjoub won 5 fights before the UFC, 3 by knockout and 1 by submission. Faglier won 6 fights before the UFC, 2 by knockout and 4 by submission.
On the mat
Neither fighter has UFC grappling numbers yet.
How it ends
Mahjoub's likeliest path is by decision (16%), while Faglier's is by knockout (28%). The model gives it a 60% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (53% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds.
The pick
The model takes Faglier at 63%, a clear lean. Picks in the 60-65% range have been right 66% of the time on 287 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Faglier: the age gap.
Model picked Joel Faglier by KO/TKO Model was right
Track record: 64% correct on 1,474 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.