Mandel Nallo vs Nate Landwehr
The setup
Mandel Nallo (0-1 in the UFC) faces Nate Landwehr (5-6 in the UFC) in a three-round lightweight bout at UFC Fight Night 291 on October 17, 2026. Nallo is 0-1 over the last one and lost to Jai Herbert last time out. Landwehr has lost three straight, most recently to Cub Swanson. Nallo has 3 inches of height and 3 inches of reach on Landwehr.
On the feet
Nallo lands 7.68 significant strikes per minute at 52% accuracy and absorbs 9.12. Landwehr lands 5.55 at 46% and absorbs 5.96. That gives Landwehr the better striking differential, -0.41 per minute to Nallo's -1.44. Landwehr is the harder target, avoiding 51% of strikes to Nallo's 32%.
On the mat
Neither leans on wrestling (0.00 and 0.73 takedowns per 15 minutes), so this should mostly be fought standing. Landwehr carries the bigger submission threat: 0.73 attempts per 15 minutes and 2 submission wins in the UFC.
How it ends
The likeliest way for either fighter to win is by decision: 32% for Nallo, 20% for Landwehr. The model gives it a 48% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (53% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds.
The pick
The model takes Nallo at 59%, a slight lean. Picks in the 55-60% range have been right 61% of the time on 387 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Nallo: absorbing fewer strikes, takedown defense and takedown volume. Landwehr's case rests on win rate and UFC experience.
Model picked Mandel Nallo by Decision Model was right
Track record: 64% correct on 1,474 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.