Cody Chovancek vs Soo Young Yoo
The setup
Cody Chovancek (debuting at 9-0 pro) faces Soo Young Yoo (3-1 in the UFC) in a three-round bantamweight bout at UFC Fight Night 291 on October 17, 2026. Yoo is 3-1 over the last four and lost to Elijah Smith last time out. Chovancek has 2 inches of height and 2 inches of reach on Yoo.
On the feet
There's no UFC striking data on Chovancek yet, so the model goes on age, size and record there. Yoo lands 2.37 significant strikes per minute at 52% accuracy and absorbs 2.13. Chovancek won 9 fights before the UFC, 4 by knockout and 2 by submission.
On the mat
Yoo averages 3.23 takedowns per 15 minutes and stops 0% of takedown attempts. With the other fighter debuting, there's nothing in the UFC to compare that against yet.
How it ends
The likeliest way for either fighter to win is by decision: 20% for Chovancek, 33% for Yoo. The model gives it a 47% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (53% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds.
The pick
The model takes Yoo at 55%, a slight lean. Picks in the 55-60% range have been right 61% of the time on 387 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Yoo: UFC experience, win rate and recent form. Chovancek's case rests on the age gap and reach.
Model picked Soo Young Yoo by Decision Model was right
Track record: 64% correct on 1,474 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.