Louis Jourdain vs Timmy Cuamba
The setup
Louis Jourdain (debuting at 9-3 pro) faces Timmy Cuamba (2-3 in the UFC) in a three-round bantamweight bout at UFC Fight Night 291 on October 17, 2026. Cuamba is 2-3 over the last five and lost to Benardo Sopaj last time out. Cuamba has a 2-inch reach advantage.
On the feet
There's no UFC striking data on Jourdain yet, so the model goes on age, size and record there. Cuamba lands 2.89 significant strikes per minute at 46% accuracy and absorbs 3.54. Jourdain won 9 fights before the UFC, 4 by knockout and 2 by submission.
On the mat
Cuamba averages 1.47 takedowns per 15 minutes and stops 67% of takedown attempts. With the other fighter debuting, there's nothing in the UFC to compare that against yet.
How it ends
The likeliest way for either fighter to win is by decision: 24% for Jourdain, 29% for Cuamba. The model gives it a 47% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (53% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds.
The pick
The model takes Cuamba at 53%, close to a coin flip. Picks in the 50-55% range have been right 55% of the time on 438 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Cuamba: UFC experience and the age gap. Jourdain's case rests on win rate and recent form.
Model picked Timmy Cuamba by Decision Model was right
Track record: 64% correct on 1,474 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.