Austin Bashi vs Carlos Calderon
The setup
Austin Bashi (1-2 in the UFC) faces Carlos Calderon (debuting at 11-4 pro) in a three-round featherweight bout at UFC Fight Night 293 on November 7, 2026. Bashi is 1-2 over the last three and lost to Jose Delgado last time out. Bashi is the younger fighter by 5 years. Calderon is 5 inches taller. It's an orthodox vs southpaw matchup.
On the feet
There's no UFC striking data on Calderon yet, so the model goes on age, size and record there. Bashi lands 1.69 significant strikes per minute at 40% accuracy and absorbs 2.35. Calderon won 11 fights before the UFC, 2 by knockout and 6 by submission.
On the mat
Bashi averages 3.12 takedowns per 15 minutes and stops 57% of takedown attempts. With the other fighter debuting, there's nothing in the UFC to compare that against yet.
How it ends
The likeliest way for either fighter to win is by decision: 26% for Bashi, 25% for Calderon. The model gives it a 50% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (53% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds.
The pick
The model takes Bashi at 53%, close to a coin flip. Picks in the 50-55% range have been right 56% of the time on 465 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Bashi: the age gap and UFC experience. Calderon's case rests on win rate and the stance matchup.
Model picked Austin Bashi by Decision Model was right
Track record: 64% correct on 1,514 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.