Mitch Raposo vs Marcos Degli
The setup
Mitch Raposo (2-2 in the UFC) faces Marcos Degli (debuting at 15-3 pro) in a three-round flyweight bout at UFC Fight Night 293 on November 7, 2026. Raposo has won two straight, most recently over Allan Nascimento. Degli has a 3-inch reach advantage.
On the feet
There's no UFC striking data on Degli yet, so the model goes on age, size and record there. Raposo lands 1.82 significant strikes per minute at 42% accuracy and absorbs 2.88. Degli won 15 fights before the UFC, 9 by knockout and 5 by submission.
On the mat
Raposo averages 1.75 takedowns per 15 minutes and stops 71% of takedown attempts. With the other fighter debuting, there's nothing in the UFC to compare that against yet.
How it ends
The likeliest way for either fighter to win is by decision: 31% for Raposo, 27% for Degli. The model gives it a 42% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (53% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds. More often than not, this one goes to the judges.
The pick
The model takes Raposo at 54%, close to a coin flip. Picks in the 50-55% range have been right 56% of the time on 465 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Raposo: UFC experience and recent form. Degli's case rests on reach and the age gap.
Model picked Mitch Raposo by Decision Model was right
Track record: 64% correct on 1,514 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.