Tatiana Suarez vs Virna Jandiroba
The setup
Tatiana Suarez (ranked No. 2, 9-1 in the UFC) faces Virna Jandiroba (ranked No. 3, 9-4 in the UFC) in a three-round women's strawweight co-main event at UFC Fight Night 293 on November 7, 2026. Suarez has won two straight, most recently over Loopy Godinez. Jandiroba is 4-1 over the last five and beat Tabatha Ricci last time out. Suarez has 2 inches of height and 2 inches of reach on Jandiroba. It's a southpaw vs orthodox matchup.
On the feet
Suarez lands 2.86 significant strikes per minute at 60% accuracy and absorbs 1.63. Jandiroba lands 2.27 at 41% and absorbs 2.86. That gives Suarez the better striking differential, +1.23 per minute to Jandiroba's -0.58. Jandiroba is the harder target, avoiding 56% of strikes to Suarez's 44%. Neither does much on the feet by our numbers.
On the mat
Suarez brings more of the wrestling, averaging 4.52 takedowns per 15 minutes at 46% accuracy, and Jandiroba stops 73% of takedown attempts. Jandiroba carries the bigger submission threat: 1.39 attempts per 15 minutes and 3 submission wins in the UFC. Suarez spends 60% of fight time in control, to 43% for Jandiroba. Against submission grapplers, Suarez is 3-0 in the UFC. Against wrestlers, Jandiroba is 3-1 in the UFC.
How it ends
The likeliest way for either fighter to win is by decision: 36% for Suarez, 26% for Jandiroba. The model gives it a 38% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (52% of finishes), and 84% come in the first two rounds. More often than not, this one goes to the judges.
The pick
The model takes Suarez at 58%, a slight lean. Picks in the 55-60% range have been right 63% of the time on 395 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Suarez: the age gap, absorbing fewer strikes and recent form. Jandiroba's case rests on UFC experience and takedown volume.
Model picked Tatiana Suarez by Decision Model was right
Track record: 64% correct on 1,514 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.