Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid
The setup
Keiichiro Nakamura (1-0 in the UFC) faces Ollie Schmid (0-1 in the UFC) in a three-round featherweight bout at UFC Fight Night 293 on November 7, 2026. Nakamura is 1-0 over the last one and beat Sebastian Szalay last time out. Schmid is 0-1 over the last one and lost to Marwan Rahiki last time out. It's a southpaw vs orthodox matchup.
On the feet
Nakamura lands 3.26 significant strikes per minute at 38% accuracy and absorbs 5.72. Schmid lands 3.23 at 30% and absorbs 7.90. That gives Nakamura the better striking differential, -2.46 per minute to Schmid's -4.67. Nakamura is the harder target, avoiding 61% of strikes to Schmid's 45%.
On the mat
Neither leans on wrestling (0.00 and 0.00 takedowns per 15 minutes), so this should mostly be fought standing.
How it ends
The likeliest way for either fighter to win is by decision: 22% for Nakamura, 30% for Schmid. The model gives it a 48% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (53% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds.
The pick
The model takes Schmid at 53%, close to a coin flip. Picks in the 50-55% range have been right 56% of the time on 465 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Schmid: the age gap, takedown defense and takedown volume. Nakamura's case rests on recent form and win rate.
Model picked Ollie Schmid by Decision Model was right
Track record: 64% correct on 1,514 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.