Jonny Parsons vs José Souza
The setup
Jonny Parsons (1-0 in the UFC) faces José Souza (1-0 in the UFC) in a three-round welterweight bout at UFC Fight Night 293 on November 7, 2026. Parsons is 1-0 over the last one and beat Danny Roberts last time out. It's Parsons's first fight in 39 months. Souza is 1-0 over the last one and beat Ding Meng last time out. Souza is the younger fighter by 11 years. Souza has 6 inches of height and 10 inches of reach on Parsons.
On the feet
Parsons lands 6.33 significant strikes per minute at 51% accuracy and absorbs 4.42. Souza lands 4.80 at 47% and absorbs 4.20. That gives Parsons the better striking differential, +1.91 per minute to Souza's +0.60. Parsons is the harder target, avoiding 67% of strikes to Souza's 57%.
On the mat
Neither leans on wrestling (0.00 and 0.00 takedowns per 15 minutes), so this should mostly be fought standing.
How it ends
The likeliest way for either fighter to win is by decision: 16% for Parsons, 31% for Souza. The model gives it a 53% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (54% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds.
The pick
The model takes Souza at 64%, a clear lean. Picks in the 60-65% range have been right 63% of the time on 317 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Souza: the age gap, reach and time between fights. Parsons's case rests on striking output and takedown defense.
Model picked José Souza by Decision Model was right
Track record: 64% correct on 1,514 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.