Mantas Kondratavičius vs Andre Petroski
The setup
Mantas Kondratavičius (1-0 in the UFC) faces Andre Petroski (8-5 in the UFC) in a three-round middleweight bout at UFC Fight Night 293 on November 7, 2026. Kondratavicius is 1-0 over the last one and beat Antonio Trocoli last time out. Petroski has lost three straight, most recently to Cody Brundage. Kondratavicius is the younger fighter by 8 years. Kondratavicius has 2 inches of height and 2 inches of reach on Petroski.
On the feet
Kondratavicius lands 5.00 significant strikes per minute at 70% accuracy and absorbs 1.13. Petroski lands 2.75 at 49% and absorbs 2.99. That gives Kondratavicius the better striking differential, +3.87 per minute to Petroski's -0.24.
On the mat
Petroski brings more of the wrestling, averaging 3.12 takedowns per 15 minutes at 53% accuracy, and Kondratavicius stops 92% of takedown attempts. That defense is a real obstacle, so Petroski may have to work hard to get it down. Petroski carries the bigger submission threat: 1.23 attempts per 15 minutes and 2 submission wins in the UFC.
How it ends
The likeliest way for either fighter to win is by decision: 31% for Kondratavicius, 19% for Petroski. The model gives it a 50% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (53% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds.
The pick
The model takes Kondratavicius at 66%, a confident pick. Picks in the 65-70% range have been right 77% of the time on 211 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Kondratavicius: the age gap, absorbing fewer strikes and striking output. Petroski's case rests on recent form.
Model picked Mantas Kondratavičius by Decision Model missed
Track record: 64% correct on 1,514 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.