Gabriel Lorenço vs Thomas Petersen
The setup
Gabriel Lorenço (debuting at 8-1 pro) faces Thomas Petersen (3-4 in the UFC) in a three-round heavyweight bout at UFC Fight Night 293 on November 7, 2026. Petersen is 2-3 over the last five and lost to Valter Walker last time out. Lorenco is the younger fighter by 4 years. Lorenco has a 2-inch reach advantage. It's an orthodox vs southpaw matchup.
On the feet
There's no UFC striking data on Lorenco yet, so the model goes on age, size and record there. Petersen lands 2.99 significant strikes per minute at 58% accuracy and absorbs 2.58. Lorenco won 8 fights before the UFC, 6 by knockout and 1 by submission.
On the mat
Petersen averages 2.59 takedowns per 15 minutes and stops 86% of takedown attempts. With the other fighter debuting, there's nothing in the UFC to compare that against yet.
How it ends
Lorenco's likeliest path is by knockout (25%), while Petersen's is by decision (22%). The model gives it a 60% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (53% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds.
The pick
The model takes Lorenco at 53%, close to a coin flip. Picks in the 50-55% range have been right 56% of the time on 465 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Lorenco: the age gap, recent form and win rate. Petersen's case rests on UFC experience and the stance matchup.
Model picked Gabriel Lorenço by KO/TKO Model missed
Track record: 64% correct on 1,514 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.