Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes
The setup
Karine Silva (ranked No. 11, 5-3 in the UFC) faces Gabriella Fernandes (ranked No. 15, 3-3 in the UFC) in a three-round women's flyweight bout at UFC Fight Night 293 on November 7, 2026. Silva has lost two straight, most recently to Jasmine Jasudavicius. Fernandes is 3-2 over the last five and lost to Casey O'Neill last time out. It's an orthodox vs southpaw matchup.
On the feet
Silva lands 2.27 significant strikes per minute at 40% accuracy and absorbs 2.64. Fernandes lands 3.51 at 47% and absorbs 5.31. That gives Silva the better striking differential, -0.37 per minute to Fernandes's -1.79. By our numbers Silva is light on striking and Fernandes a pressure striker.
On the mat
Silva brings more of the wrestling, averaging 2.08 takedowns per 15 minutes at 55% accuracy, and Fernandes stops 69% of takedown attempts. Silva carries the bigger submission threat: 1.38 attempts per 15 minutes and 3 submission wins in the UFC. Silva spends 23% of fight time in control, to 5% for Fernandes. Against submission grapplers, Fernandes is 1-1 in the UFC.
How it ends
The likeliest way for either fighter to win is by decision: 37% for Silva, 26% for Fernandes. The model gives it a 37% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (53% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds. More often than not, this one goes to the judges.
The pick
The model takes Silva at 61%, a clear lean. Picks in the 60-65% range have been right 63% of the time on 317 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Silva: absorbing fewer strikes, recent form and win rate. Fernandes's case rests on takedown defense and striking output.
Model picked Karine Silva by Decision Model was right
Track record: 64% correct on 1,514 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.