Davey Grant vs Elijah Smith
The setup
Davey Grant (9-7 in the UFC) faces Elijah Smith (3-0 in the UFC) in a three-round bantamweight bout at UFC Fight Night 293 on November 7, 2026. Grant is 3-2 over the last five and beat Adrian Luna Martinetti last time out. Smith has won three straight, most recently over Soo Young Yoo. Smith is the younger fighter by 16 years. Smith has a 2-inch reach advantage.
On the feet
Grant lands 5.58 significant strikes per minute at 45% accuracy and absorbs 4.04. Smith lands 3.69 at 55% and absorbs 1.70. That gives Smith the better striking differential, +1.98 per minute to Grant's +1.54. Grant has 3 knockout wins in 16 UFC fights. By our numbers Grant is a volume striker and Smith a balanced striker.
On the mat
Smith brings more of the wrestling, averaging 1.78 takedowns per 15 minutes at 75% accuracy, and Grant stops 65% of takedown attempts. Smith carries the bigger submission threat: 1.19 attempts per 15 minutes and 1 submission win in the UFC. Smith spends 33% of fight time in control, to 12% for Grant. Against submission grapplers, Grant is 3-4 in the UFC.
How it ends
Grant's likeliest path is by decision (21%), while Smith's is by submission (25%). The model gives it a 56% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (53% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds.
The pick
The model takes Smith at 68%, a confident pick. Picks in the 65-70% range have been right 77% of the time on 211 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Smith: the age gap, absorbing fewer strikes and takedown volume. Grant's case rests on striking output and takedown defense.
Model picked Elijah Smith by Decision Model was right
Track record: 64% correct on 1,514 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.