Jose Delano vs Murtazali Magomedov
The setup
Jose Delano (1-0 in the UFC) faces Murtazali Magomedov (1-0 in the UFC) in a three-round featherweight bout at UFC Fight Night 293 on November 7, 2026. Delano is 1-0 over the last one and beat Robert Ruchala last time out. Magomedov is 1-0 over the last one and beat Melsik Baghdasaryan last time out.
On the feet
Delano lands 7.13 significant strikes per minute at 62% accuracy and absorbs 4.47. Magomedov lands 3.90 at 71% and absorbs 2.34. That gives Delano the better striking differential, +2.67 per minute to Magomedov's +1.56. Magomedov is the harder target, avoiding 77% of strikes to Delano's 66%.
On the mat
Magomedov brings more of the wrestling, averaging 11.69 takedowns per 15 minutes at 50% accuracy, and Delano stops 100% of takedown attempts. That defense is a real obstacle, so Magomedov may have to work hard to get it down. Magomedov carries the bigger submission threat: 11.69 attempts per 15 minutes and 1 submission win in the UFC. Magomedov spends 35% of fight time in control, to 4% for Delano.
How it ends
The likeliest way for either fighter to win is by decision: 29% for Delano, 25% for Magomedov. The model gives it a 46% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (53% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds.
The pick
The model takes Magomedov at 53%, close to a coin flip. Picks in the 50-55% range have been right 56% of the time on 465 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Magomedov: the age gap, absorbing fewer strikes and takedown volume. Delano's case rests on striking output and takedown defense.
Model picked Murtazali Magomedov by Decision Model was right
Track record: 64% correct on 1,514 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.