Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita
The setup
Aaron Pico (ranked No. 11, 2-1 in the UFC) faces Losene Keita (1-2 in the UFC) in a three-round featherweight bout at UFC 333 on October 24, 2026. Pico has won two straight, most recently over Losene Keita. Keita is 1-2 over the last three and lost to Aaron Pico last time out. Keita has a 2-inch reach advantage.
On the feet
Pico lands 6.08 significant strikes per minute at 54% accuracy and absorbs 3.01. Keita lands 3.76 at 47% and absorbs 4.02. That gives Pico the better striking differential, +3.06 per minute to Keita's -0.26. Keita is the harder target, avoiding 64% of strikes to Pico's 45%. By our numbers Pico is a volume striker and Keita a balanced striker.
On the mat
Pico brings more of the wrestling, averaging 6.89 takedowns per 15 minutes at 50% accuracy, and Keita stops 67% of takedown attempts. Pico spends 31% of fight time in control, to 2% for Keita. Against wrestlers, Keita is 1-1 in the UFC.
How it ends
Pico's likeliest path is by decision (35%), while Keita's is by knockout (23%). The model gives it a 44% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (54% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds. More often than not, this one goes to the judges.
The pick
The model takes Pico at 52%, close to a coin flip. Picks in the 50-55% range have been right 57% of the time on 488 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Pico: striking output, takedown volume and absorbing fewer strikes. Keita's case rests on the age gap and recent form.
Model picked Aaron Pico by Decision Model was right
Track record: 64% correct on 1,489 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.