Colby Thicknesse vs Asaf Chopurov
The setup
Colby Thicknesse (3-1 in the UFC) faces Asaf Chopurov (0-1 in the UFC) in a three-round bantamweight bout at UFC 333 on October 24, 2026. Thicknesse has won three straight, most recently over Asaf Chopurov. Chopurov is 0-1 over the last one and lost to Colby Thicknesse last time out.
On the feet
Thicknesse lands 3.72 significant strikes per minute at 46% accuracy and absorbs 3.10. Chopurov lands 3.60 at 56% and absorbs 5.13. That gives Thicknesse the better striking differential, +0.62 per minute to Chopurov's -1.53. Thicknesse is the harder target, avoiding 52% of strikes to Chopurov's 43%.
On the mat
Chopurov brings more of the wrestling, averaging 8.00 takedowns per 15 minutes at 67% accuracy, and Thicknesse stops 33% of takedown attempts. Thicknesse gets taken down often, which plays into Chopurov's hands. Thicknesse carries the bigger submission threat: 1.25 attempts per 15 minutes and 0 submission wins in the UFC.
How it ends
The likeliest way for either fighter to win is by decision: 28% for Thicknesse, 25% for Chopurov. The model gives it a 47% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (53% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds.
The pick
The model takes Thicknesse at 55%, close to a coin flip. Picks in the 50-55% range have been right 57% of the time on 488 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Thicknesse: UFC experience, win rate and recent form. Chopurov's case rests on the age gap.
Model picked Colby Thicknesse by Decision Model was right
Track record: 64% correct on 1,489 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.