Lone’er Kavanagh vs Ramazan Temirov
The setup
Lone’er Kavanagh (ranked No. 6, 4-2 in the UFC) faces Ramazan Temirov (ranked No. 10, 3-1 in the UFC) in a three-round flyweight bout at UFC 333 on October 24, 2026. Kavanagh is 3-2 over the last five and beat Ramazan Temirov last time out. Temirov is 3-1 over the last four and lost to Lone'er Kavanagh last time out. Kavanagh has 2 inches of height and 4 inches of reach on Temirov.
On the feet
Kavanagh lands 4.16 significant strikes per minute at 50% accuracy and absorbs 3.94. Temirov lands 4.62 at 42% and absorbs 3.90. That gives Temirov the better striking differential, +0.71 per minute to Kavanagh's +0.22. Temirov is the harder target, avoiding 60% of strikes to Kavanagh's 54%. Temirov has 2 knockout wins in 4 UFC fights. By our numbers both are volume strikers.
On the mat
Both mix in takedowns at a similar rate (1.09 and 0.56 per 15 minutes), and Kavanagh stops 83% of attempts to Temirov's 100%.
How it ends
The likeliest way for either fighter to win is by decision: 31% for Kavanagh, 23% for Temirov. The model gives it a 46% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (54% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds.
The pick
The model takes Kavanagh at 51%, close to a coin flip. Picks in the 50-55% range have been right 57% of the time on 488 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Kavanagh: the age gap, UFC experience and reach. Temirov's case rests on recent form and win rate.
Model picked Lone’er Kavanagh by Decision Model was right
Track record: 64% correct on 1,489 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.