Iasmin Lucindo vs Nicolle Caliari
The setup
Iasmin Lucindo (6-2 in the UFC) faces Nicolle Caliari (1-3 in the UFC) in a three-round women's strawweight bout at UFC 333 on October 24, 2026. Lucindo has won two straight, most recently over Nicolle Caliari. It's Lucindo's first fight in 14 months. Caliari is 1-3 over the last four and lost to Iasmin Lucindo last time out. Lucindo is the younger fighter by 5 years. Lucindo has a 4-inch reach advantage.
On the feet
Lucindo lands 3.07 significant strikes per minute at 47% accuracy and absorbs 2.66. Caliari lands 2.67 at 43% and absorbs 4.83. That gives Lucindo the better striking differential, +0.40 per minute to Caliari's -2.16. Lucindo is the harder target, avoiding 60% of strikes to Caliari's 52%. Neither does much on the feet by our numbers.
On the mat
Caliari brings more of the wrestling, averaging 2.75 takedowns per 15 minutes at 29% accuracy, and Lucindo stops 65% of takedown attempts.
How it ends
The likeliest way for either fighter to win is by decision: 48% for Lucindo, 16% for Caliari. The model gives it a 36% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (53% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds. More often than not, this one goes to the judges.
The pick
The model takes Lucindo at 75%, one of the model's stronger calls. Picks in the 70-100% range have been right 78% of the time on 74 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Lucindo: absorbing fewer strikes, the age gap and recent form. Caliari's case rests on time between fights.
Model picked Iasmin Lucindo by Decision Model was right
Track record: 64% correct on 1,489 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.