Bolaji Oki vs Daniel Santos
The setup
Bolaji Oki (2-4 in the UFC) faces Daniel Santos (5-2 in the UFC) in a three-round featherweight bout at UFC 333 on October 24, 2026. Oki has lost three straight, most recently to Daniel Santos. Santos is 4-1 over the last five and beat Bolaji Oki last time out. Oki has 3 inches of height and 6 inches of reach on Santos.
On the feet
Oki lands 5.84 significant strikes per minute at 47% accuracy and absorbs 5.14. Santos lands 5.14 at 42% and absorbs 5.24. That gives Oki the better striking differential, +0.70 per minute to Santos's -0.11. Oki is the harder target, avoiding 60% of strikes to Santos's 49%. Santos has 2 knockout wins in 7 UFC fights. By our numbers both are pressure strikers.
On the mat
Santos brings more of the wrestling, averaging 2.49 takedowns per 15 minutes at 34% accuracy, and Oki stops 71% of takedown attempts. Against wrestlers, Oki is 0-2 in the UFC.
How it ends
The likeliest way for either fighter to win is by decision: 21% for Oki, 30% for Santos. The model gives it a 50% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (54% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds.
The pick
The model takes Santos at 62%, a clear lean. Picks in the 60-65% range have been right 67% of the time on 316 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Santos: recent form, win rate and UFC experience. Oki's case rests on reach and striking output.
Model picked Daniel Santos by Decision Model was right
Track record: 64% correct on 1,489 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.