Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun
The setup
Abubakar Vagaev (2-0 in the UFC) faces Jacob Malkoun (6-4 in the UFC) in a three-round middleweight bout at UFC 333 on October 24, 2026. Vagaev has won two straight, most recently over Jacob Malkoun. Malkoun is 3-2 over the last five and lost to Abubakar Vagaev last time out. Vagaev is 3 inches taller.
On the feet
Vagaev lands 3.27 significant strikes per minute at 47% accuracy and absorbs 4.63. Malkoun lands 4.60 at 56% and absorbs 2.64. That gives Malkoun the better striking differential, +1.96 per minute to Vagaev's -1.37.
On the mat
Vagaev brings more of the wrestling, averaging 5.00 takedowns per 15 minutes at 45% accuracy, and Malkoun stops 52% of takedown attempts. Malkoun gets taken down often, which plays into Vagaev's hands. Malkoun carries the bigger submission threat: 0.65 attempts per 15 minutes and 0 submission wins in the UFC.
How it ends
The likeliest way for either fighter to win is by decision: 20% for Vagaev, 36% for Malkoun. The model gives it a 44% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (53% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds. More often than not, this one goes to the judges.
The pick
The model takes Malkoun at 65%, a confident pick. Picks in the 65-70% range have been right 75% of the time on 182 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Malkoun: the age gap, recent form and absorbing fewer strikes.
Model picked Jacob Malkoun by Decision Model missed
Track record: 64% correct on 1,489 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.