Alexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev
The setup
Alexander Volkanovski (the champion, 16-3 in the UFC) faces Movsar Evloev (ranked No. 1, 10-1 in the UFC) in a five-round featherweight title main event at UFC 333 on October 24, 2026. Volkanovski has won three straight, most recently over Movsar Evloev. Evloev is 4-1 over the last five and lost to Alexander Volkanovski last time out. Evloev is the younger fighter by 6 years.
On the feet
Volkanovski lands 5.98 significant strikes per minute at 57% accuracy and absorbs 3.33. Evloev lands 3.91 at 48% and absorbs 2.97. That gives Volkanovski the better striking differential, +2.65 per minute to Evloev's +0.95. Volkanovski has 6 knockout wins in 19 UFC fights. By our numbers Volkanovski is a volume striker and Evloev a counter striker.
On the mat
Evloev brings more of the wrestling, averaging 4.77 takedowns per 15 minutes at 52% accuracy, and Volkanovski stops 67% of takedown attempts. Against wrestlers, Volkanovski is 4-0 in the UFC.
How it ends
The likeliest way for either fighter to win is by decision: 27% for Volkanovski, 33% for Evloev. The model gives it a 40% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (40% of finishes), and 66% come in the first two rounds. More often than not, this one goes to the judges.
The pick
The model takes Evloev at 53%, close to a coin flip. Picks in the 50-55% range have been right 57% of the time on 488 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Evloev: the age gap, win rate and takedown volume. Volkanovski's case rests on recent form and striking output.
Model picked Movsar Evloev by Decision Model missed
Track record: 64% correct on 1,489 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.