Abus Magomedov vs Cam Rowston
The setup
Abus Magomedov (ranked No. 12, 6-3 in the UFC) faces Cam Rowston (3-1 in the UFC) in a three-round middleweight bout at UFC 333 on October 24, 2026. Magomedov has won two straight, most recently over Cam Rowston. Rowston is 3-1 over the last four and lost to Abus Magomedov last time out. Rowston is the younger fighter by 5 years.
On the feet
Magomedov lands 3.13 significant strikes per minute at 49% accuracy and absorbs 3.28. Rowston lands 5.22 at 47% and absorbs 2.24. That gives Rowston the better striking differential, +2.98 per minute to Magomedov's -0.15. Magomedov is the harder target, avoiding 57% of strikes to Rowston's 51%. Rowston has 2 knockout wins in 4 UFC fights. By our numbers Magomedov is a balanced striker and Rowston a power striker.
On the mat
Both mix in takedowns at a similar rate (2.44 and 2.10 per 15 minutes), and Magomedov stops 83% of attempts to Rowston's 100%. Magomedov carries the bigger submission threat: 0.75 attempts per 15 minutes and 3 submission wins in the UFC. Rowston spends 45% of fight time in control, to 25% for Magomedov. Against submission grapplers, Rowston is 1-1 in the UFC.
How it ends
Magomedov's likeliest path is by decision (23%), while Rowston's is by knockout (26%). The model gives it a 54% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (53% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds.
The pick
The model takes Rowston at 54%, close to a coin flip. Picks in the 50-55% range have been right 57% of the time on 488 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Rowston: the age gap, win rate and striking output. Magomedov's case rests on UFC experience and takedown volume.
Model picked Cam Rowston by Decision Model missed
Track record: 64% correct on 1,489 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.