Nikita Krylov vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
The setup
Nikita Krylov (ranked No. 15, 12-11 in the UFC) faces Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (4-0 in the UFC) in a three-round light heavyweight bout at UFC 333 on October 24, 2026. Krylov has lost two straight, most recently to Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev. Yakhyaev has won four straight, most recently over Nikita Krylov. Yakhyaev is the younger fighter by 9 years.
On the feet
Krylov lands 4.33 significant strikes per minute at 54% accuracy and absorbs 2.74. Yakhyaev lands 4.04 at 60% and absorbs 1.94. That gives Yakhyaev the better striking differential, +2.10 per minute to Krylov's +1.59. Krylov has 5 knockout wins in 23 UFC fights. Yakhyaev has 2 knockout wins in 4 UFC fights. By our numbers Krylov is a balanced striker and Yakhyaev a power striker.
On the mat
Yakhyaev brings more of the wrestling, averaging 9.70 takedowns per 15 minutes at 80% accuracy, and Krylov stops 52% of takedown attempts. Krylov gets taken down often, which plays into Yakhyaev's hands. Yakhyaev carries the bigger submission threat: 7.28 attempts per 15 minutes and 2 submission wins in the UFC. Against wrestlers, Krylov is 3-2 in the UFC. Against submission grapplers, Yakhyaev is 2-0 in the UFC.
How it ends
The likeliest way for either fighter to win is by knockout: 16% for Krylov, 26% for Yakhyaev. The model gives it a 74% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (53% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds.
The pick
The model takes Yakhyaev at 63%, a clear lean. Picks in the 60-65% range have been right 67% of the time on 316 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Yakhyaev: the age gap, win rate and takedown volume. Krylov's case rests on UFC experience.
Model picked Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev by KO/TKO Model was right
Track record: 64% correct on 1,489 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.