Alexander Volkov vs Rizvan Kuniev
The setup
Alexander Volkov (ranked No. 2, 15-5 in the UFC) faces Rizvan Kuniev (ranked No. 7, 2-2 in the UFC) in a three-round heavyweight bout at UFC 333 on October 24, 2026. Volkov has won three straight, most recently over Rizvan Kuniev. Kuniev is 2-2 over the last four and lost to Alexander Volkov last time out. Kuniev is the younger fighter by 4 years. Volkov has 3 inches of height and 4 inches of reach on Kuniev.
On the feet
Volkov lands 5.07 significant strikes per minute at 57% accuracy and absorbs 3.08. Kuniev lands 3.65 at 50% and absorbs 3.22. That gives Volkov the better striking differential, +2.00 per minute to Kuniev's +0.43. Volkov has 6 knockout wins in 20 UFC fights. By our numbers Volkov is a volume striker and Kuniev a balanced striker.
On the mat
Neither leans on wrestling (0.57 and 0.00 takedowns per 15 minutes), so this should mostly be fought standing.
How it ends
The likeliest way for either fighter to win is by decision: 33% for Volkov, 22% for Kuniev. The model gives it a 45% chance of ending early. If it does, round 1 is the most likely (54% of finishes), and 85% come in the first two rounds.
The pick
The model takes Volkov at 58%, a slight lean. Picks in the 55-60% range have been right 64% of the time on 414 UFC fights since 2024. What's pushing it toward Volkov: recent form, win rate and striking output. Kuniev's case rests on the age gap and takedown defense.
Model picked Alexander Volkov by Decision Model was right
Track record: 64% correct on 1,489 UFC fights since 2024 that the model never trained on, and 71% when it gives a fighter 60% or better.